Navigating NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
The 2025 NFL season is finally here. With Week 1 just around the corner, bettors are gearing up for an exciting round of matchups.
This week, all eyes are on the Dallas Cowboys versus the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, are favored in this matchup.
The Super Bowl Hangover
The concept of the “Super Bowl hangover” has lingered in NFL discussions for years. Bettors often shy away from supporting the defending champs in their opening game.
Interestingly, Super Bowl champions boast a strong Week 1 record of 19 wins and only 5 losses since 2001.
Riding the Hot Hand
When looking for trends, the Eagles have consistently performed well in openers, achieving a 14-3 record since 2008.
Additionally, the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders show impressive statistics in opening games, indicating a trend to watch.
Teams to Avoid
Conversely, some teams struggle in Week 1. The New York Giants have only 2 wins in 14 opening games since 2011.
Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts have a disappointing history, with just 1 win over 15 years in season openers.
Blindly Betting Favorites
It may seem obvious to back favorites, but this strategy has seen limited success. Despite winning over 61% of the time, favorites only covered the point spread at 44%.
Last season’s favorites achieved a 9-7 record against the spread during Week 1, challenging traditional betting wisdom.
Home Field Advantage
Home teams traditionally dominate in Week 1, yet statistics show mixed results. The last four years have seen home teams win just under 50% of the time.
This raises the question: Does home-field advantage hold? The numbers suggest cautious optimism.
Smaller Point Spreads
Many games have narrow point spreads this year. Oddly enough, favorites win significantly more often during even-numbered years compared to odd-numbered ones.
Betting Totals
When it comes to betting totals, the under has consistently been a safe bet. Between 2014 and 2025, the under has won 54.6% of the time.
Conclusion
As Week 1 approaches, consider these trends in your betting strategy. The NFL is unpredictable, and even the best statistics aren’t guaranteed to hold. Analyzing past performances can certainly give an edge, but staying adaptable is key. Happy betting!